No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 21 19:56:01 UTC 2008.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 21 19:56:01 UTC 2008.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...
COLDEST PART OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS /I.E. SST FROM 8C-11C/...SUPPORTING
LAKE EFFECT/BANDED SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.  MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY BY 12Z SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET ALOFT MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES...
COLDEST PART OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS /I.E. SST FROM 8C-11C/...SUPPORTING
LAKE EFFECT/BANDED SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.  MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY BY 12Z SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POCKET ALOFT MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE CONUS BY
DAY 2...AS THE NERN U.S. TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVES NWD INTO ERN
CANADA/MARITIMES.  ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY SHOULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY...
WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA/NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

ANY LINGERING TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY 1
SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVELS WARM IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO

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